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You Better Watch Out - Introduction
This mission has a lot of options for how to kill the targets and gain access to the various restricted areas. I'll give you one good option to get through it all with a silent assassin rating. Note that it is a really hard level to cover, compared to the rest of the Hitman: Blood Money walkthrough. You might just have to play around on the level once to get a good feel for the map and really understand the flow of events and security patterns.
Also, while there are a ton of options for distracting guards and guests to get different uniforms and a few options to get access to the targets, there's only a few "good" ways to do it. You Better Watch Out is one of my least favorite levels.
Note that there are far too many options for disguises to really cover. You can get a santa custom, a waiter costume, either one of the guard costumes, two guest costumes and a photographer's costume.
Note that you really don't need a guest uniform. The normal guest uniform doesn't do anything more than 47's suit. Getting one with the flashing heart grants you access to the grotto, but you don't even really need that if you get the photographer's suit.
Also note that there is a sniping option for the level, but it's a little tricky and a little boring to cover. Basically, you just have to go up to the party, climb up onto the roof, snipe Bingham in the hot tub and hit Havilland when he goes out on his balcony. Unfortunately, you still have to go up and get the sex tape, so I don't really care for the sniper path.
I wouldn't bother with bringing any weapons. You don't really need any and some of the guards will search you on the main path to the grotto.
The security tape is probably going to be a necessary grab, since there are cameras on a lot of the entrances. It's in a room on the upper level above the party deck and it's should be marked. At some point both guards should be facing away from the tape, grab the security camera tape quietly to protect your identity.
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You Better Watch Out - Killing Chad Bingham Jr.
Hot Tub Accident - Yeah, building a hot tub on a ledge six stories off the ground isn't a brillant idea. If you want, you can just step under the hot tub on the docks and use a silenced pistol to break it and kill Bingham. That's a little messy though and tends to draw attention from the guards. It also kills a lot of innocents.
Ledge Ambush - This is the best way to kill Chad Bingham Jr. Take the elevator up to the main party deck and walk up to the bar. Talk to the bartender and he'll give 47 an aphrodisiac. Put this into the drink on the bar and wait for a moment until a waiter picks it up and takes it to the hot tub for Bingham. He'll drink it and tell one of the girls that he wants a little fun. This is all arounding to plan.
You can't get into the grotto through the main door since you don't have a heart on your suit, but you can go through the side door and get inside. Walk along with Bingham past the pool and into the back area with the private rooms. Bingham is going to need a few minutes to finish up, so let's get a good uniform while we wait.
The photographer uniform is practically a cheat code for this level. Photographers have full access to the entire mansion and can even go into most of the security rooms without drawing attention. There's a photographer sitting on the wall by the waterfall. You can see the back of the waterfall in this private area. Walk through the water and sneak up behind him. Sedate the photographer and drag the body into the middle of the waterfall area. Steal his clothes and enjoy the much easier level.
Now that you're allowed to go everywhere, check on Bingham. If you're impatient, you can just throw the door open to cut his love session short. Regardless, he'll walk out to a private balcony for a smoke. Follow him out and push him over for an easy kill. Make sure that you save first though, since you may only hit him or headbutt him, which may wreck your rating for the level (fighting generates "noise").
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You Better Watch Out - ? Assassin
We don't know the name of the mystery assassin, but you may want to go ahead and take her out. When 47 walks through the grotto area, one of the girls will tell him to come into the room for a little fun. You can know that it's the right room because the map should show a body in it and a point of interest. If you go into the room, she'll approach you and then try to kill you. It's possible to chase her around the room and eventually poison her quietly, but you're usually stuck head butting her which tends to raise an alarm. If you're going for the silent assassin rating, then just ignore her. She won't turn into an enemy until you walk into the room (in fact, killing her first may count as murdering an innocent).
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You Better Watch Out - Killing Lorne Havilland
As I mentioned, you should probably have a guard uniform from one of the guards on the ledges or ideally a photographer's uniform. Go up to the studio level to find Lorne Havilland. Note that there is a unique problem for him. His dog actually counts as a witness and can basically rat you out to the guards if you just try to kill him in the suite.
Disabling the Dog - Unless you want to try and snipe the dog, you'll need a sausage from the kitchen by the bar. Inject it with the sedative and then put it into your inventory. You can then just throw the sausage close to the dog to knock him out for the rest of the level. This of course opens up...
Ledge Accident - Havilland likes to look out over the tall balcony. You should be able to push him over the edge (save first or use the human shield technique or the sedative to knock him out and then dump him over the wall.
Photoshoot Accident - This is the one I usually use. It's not quiet, but it is an accident and a fairly easy one to pull off. Walk into the main studio near the photoshoot for the girls. Climb the ladder to reach the catwalks and walk along until you find the spot where you can plant the mine on the light. Then just climb back down, get into a corner where no one can see you and blow up the rigging holding up the lights when Havilland comes to inspect the girls at the photoshoot. It should crush him (and a few of the girls), but it's all classified as an accident and shouldn't impact your silent assassin ranking as long as no one sees you use the detonator.
On the plus side, it also creates a big distraction for you to slip into the nearby security booth and steal the sex tape.
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You Better Watch Out - Retrieving the Sex Tape
You'll need a guard uniform or a photographer's uniform to get this easily (or create a big distraction with an explosion in the studio)
The sex tape is hidden in a room on the top floor just off of the studio. It's marked as a point of interest. Walk inside and wait for the guard to look the other way, then just grab it.
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You Better Watch Out - Escaping
This is actually pretty easy. You can just backtrack to the start via the elevator and leave on the boat. You can also take the private elevator inside the mansion up to the helipad. There are cameras up here, but if you already stole the security camera tape, then it's a quick escape option.
Note that leaving via the boat is pretty easy if you want to leave in the suit and avoid the suit retrieval fee. You'll almost certainly need a disguise to use the helicopter.